A Second Trump Presidency Could Hurt the American Whiskey Industry

Late last year, the European Union agreed to suspend tariffs on American whiskey until at least 2025. But the U.S. whiskey industry is still gearing up for instability if Donald Trump wins the election next month.

Those in the spirits industry expect Trump to raise tariffs if he becomes president once again, The New York Times reported on Thursday. While Trump is likely to impose taxes in many sectors, whiskey requires a lot of advance planning. As such, those who make the liquid are unsure what the future holds for them and their business. Some are even pausing any expansion plans in Europe because they don’t know what might happen come November.

“That may be a bad investment for that small business,” Chris R. Swonger, the president of the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, told the Times.

The E.U. first imposed tariffs on American whiskey back in 2018, in retaliation for Trump’s taxes on European steel and aluminum, The New York Times noted. President Joe Biden worked to pause the tariffs through 2025, although it’s unclear what will happen once the suspension ends. In addition, a 50 percent tax on whiskey exports will go into effect in March unless another deal is reached, the Times wrote. Yet another round of tariffs will begin in 2026, barring another agreement.

When the tariffs first went into effect, the American whiskey industry took a huge hit: Exports to the E.U. fell a whopping 20 percent from 2018 to 2021, as we reported last year. That led to a loss of about $112 million. And while the whiskey business may have been spared from additional tariffs for now, it can take some four to 10 years—or more—for whiskey to go from the grain to a bottle you can enjoy at home. The uncertainty about tariffs moving forward makes it hard for distillers to plan for their future, and that lack of knowing echoes across the planet.

“As Americans go to the polls, their choices have ramifications for the world,” Victor Cha, the senior vice president for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told The New York Times.

If Trump were to win the election, he’s said that he would impose a 60 percent tariff on goods from China and a 10 percent tax on other items from around the world, the newspaper noted. Kamala Harris, meanwhile, has said that she would use tariffs in a more “targeted” way. After November 5, the whiskey industry and all other businesses should have at least a slightly better idea of what their future looks like.

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