Near Record-High Cocoa Prices Are Destroying Chocolate Demand

Thanks to the soaring cost of chocolate, consumers may be taking a step back from their favorite sweet treat this year.

Nearly record-high prices on the candy will end up hurting demand in 2025, with analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicting a drop of at least 1.8 percent in consumption over the course of the year, Bloomberg reported.

That lack of demand, in part, will result in a smaller decrease in chocolate supply than anticipated, according to JPMorgan. This past fall, the company had originally estimated that the 2024-25 season would have a deficit of 108,000 tons of cocoa; now, however, it expects that shortage to be just 40,000 tons.

Despite those figures, companies are attempting to offset cocoa’s sky-high prices, meaning that chocolate prices will likely still increase on the consumer side of the market, Bloomberg notes. Historically, chocolate has sat at about $2,500 per metric ton, we reported last spring. In April of 2024, that price ballooned to a whopping $11,000 a ton; currently, the cost of the treat sits at about $10,000 a ton in New York.

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“Historically high prices are destroying demand, and we look for world grindings to contract by at least -1.8% year-on-year,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in their report.

And with recent earnings reports from chocolatiers indicating that the historically strong demand for the sweet treat is decreasing, companies are also on the hunt for other avenues besides price changes to curb the industry stressors. Brands, for example, are searching for ways to swap out cocoa with other ingredients in their confections, Hershey CEO Michele Buck told investors, according to Bloomberg.

And though a potential price hike and a predicted lack of demand may not be the most welcome news the week before Valentine’s Day, don’t stress. We have plenty of other gifts for your loved one on the most romantic day of the year that you can check out here. Or, if you prefer experiences over material things on February 14, these romantic getaways via private jet and yacht charters will surely fit the bill.