Some Wall Avenue Analysts Suppose Tesla Could Restrict How Many Cybertrucks It Builds the First Two Years

Wall Street thinks there’s another reason why we might not see that many Tesla Cybertrucks on the road over the next couple of years.

Long before last month’s live-streamed delivery event, Elon Musk warned that it would take time before the EV maker was ready to begin “volume” production of its first electric truck. The thinking has been that this was because the vehicle would be particularly difficult to build, but, Business Insider points out, it might also be a way to ensure that demand stays strong.

Investment banks still have no idea how many Cybertrucks will roll off the line at Tesla’s Austin Gigafactory over the next two years. Investment banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and UBS estimate that the marque will be able to build 48,500 units in 2024. There’s a lot more variance when it comes to the 2025 production numbers, though, with delivery forecasts falling between 78,000 and 230,000 units.

The bank with the least optimism—or most caution—about Cybertruck production is Morgan Stanley, according to Business Insider. It estimates that Tesla will build 30,000 examples of the EV next year and 78,000 in 2025, for a total of 108,000 units during the pickup’s first two years of production. In a research note, analyst Adam Jones wrote that Tesla may follow the lead of sports car maker Ferrari to keep demand levels higher than supply for the foreseeable future.

“Will Tesla take a page out of Ferrari’s playbook of limited series production?” Jones wrote in the note. “The company may decide to purposely limit series production to maintain scarcity while focusing company resources on more profitable products.”

It has previously been reported that Tesla has over one million pre-orders for the Cybertruck. There’s long been skepticism of this claim—in part because reservations only required a $100 deposit—but if just 20 percent of pre-orders are converted to purchases, Tesla would be nowhere near meeting demand after two years if Morgan Stanley’s forecast is correct. This could help ensure that there remains a market for the EV for years to come.

Tesla did not respond to a request for comment from Robb Report on Wednesday.

There may continue to be high demand for the Cybertruck regardless of what Tesla does. The Cybertruck may not be everything that was initially promised, but it’s still one of the more intriguing EVs out there. It is also, without a doubt, the most unique looking (though that may cause issues down the line). The pickup will never outsell the Model Y, but it’s hard to imagine there won’t be some interest in it going forward.