Why BMW Says the Stick Shift’s Days Are Numbered

BMW’s American buyers can still get a manual transmission with the marque’s Z4, M2, M3, and M4—or a convertible and three performance cars. The Z4 is on its way out, though, and stick shifts on the other three may be as well.

That would continue a long descent for manual cars, which may have been cursed the moment GM began producing its Hydra-Matic in 1939, the first mass-produced automatic transmission. These days, the stick shift is threatened by the rise of electric cars, dual-clutch transmissions, and the simple fact that customers aren’t buying manual transmission cars in greater and greater numbers.

BMW isn’t immune, despite its long love affair with shifting gears. Frank Van Meel, the CEO of BMW’s M performance division, also recently told the car media in Australia that “the manual doesn’t really make sense.

“It limits you in torque and also in fuel consumption,” Van Meel said. ““But from an emotional standpoint and customer standpoint, a lot of people still love manuals, so that’s why we kept them, and we intend to keep them as long as possible . . . It’s going to be quite difficult in the future to develop completely new gearboxes because the segment in the market is quite small, and the suppliers are not so keen on doing something like that.”

“We’re still happy with the manuals we have and we plan to keep them for the next couple of years, but in [the] future, probably it’s going to be more difficult to keep the manuals alive, especially in the next decade,” the CEO added.

The message to customers is also clear: If you want a new manual BMW, you should buy now, though Van Meel’s comments suggest the company will definitely keep stick shifts for a few years, maybe even through the 2030s. The exact timeline will, of course, depend on customer demand, and, currently, some 40 percent of BMW M buyers went manual last year, according to Motor1.

That’s a significant number that’s hard to ignore—other automakers report “take rates” of manual transmissions that are much lower—but also one that gets a little less each year. In the end, it won’t be sentimentality that keeps companies making manuals or not, but economics.

Click here to see photos of all the BMW M cars with manual transmissions.

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